AUD/USD Update

Took two-thirds out yesterday at 1.0063 as it tested previous low.

Now keeping remaining third in to T/P at 1.0025 - currently at 1.0037 as I type.

May look at re-entry on this one later if it retests underside of trendline then down through parity.

Some Potential Set-ups for the Week

Still hanging in on the AUD/USD. Tried a scalp long on the USD/JPY this morning off support but got stopped - should learn to leave Mondaya alone during the dull Asia session.

Some things I am lookinga tthis week:

EURUSD
- Daily Wave A short
- 4H at top of upward channel

USDJPY
- stopped out of 4H candle pattern long

AUDNZD
- Wave A on Daily short
- market is stretched
- interest rates may drop this week on NZD (this puts doubt into tech read)
- fill at 3750 with 35 point stop?
- missed entry this morning
- wait for pull back to fib level

EURJPY
- pinbar on Daily (short)
- 4H in wave 3 long
- Trade wave 4 short but 1H may have one more move up
- resistance at 116

EURCHF

- long 1H wave 5
- 1 hour candle pattern at 1pm (WAST)?

EURGBP
- ABC correction and 76% fib at 8760 short
- Wave A 4H short off 8625 (127%)

Knowing When to Take Profit?

I am still in the AUD/USD short trade below from Monday 28th Feb.




I fancied the price action toward parity after the ABC correction to previous resistance at the 1.0190 levels. My initial take profit target was above parity at 1.0008. I then decided to lift my target to 1.0078 only to painfully watch as price stalled at the 50% fib and 4hr moving averages.

I also tried to take a smaller scalp position of the 50% and 1H moving average but that took me out as the news hit.

Looking to next week - I have taken it through the payroll number on Friday. in advance of this my take profit is now 1.0025 which is around the trend line support. I will monitor this to maybe take it out earlier at 1.0050 - 200 EMA support.

In hindsight - like the EUR before - maybe should have been content with a couple of 2:1 risk reward trades?

EUR/USD - Getting taken out at the High now that is Annoying

Last night saw the EUR trade get taken out at my stop to the exact point - i had a buy stop on the Bid at 1.3855. My broker printed 1.38551 - isn't that frustrating. Now that may be understating my actual feelings slightly. This is a Scotsman who believes that conversation would be rather dull without some colourful adjectives. The picture was rather more like this - walk calmly into the back room and scream f#$^ at the top of my lungs.

All that said the fact is that I was almost 100 points up (= $1500) in the morning only to watch the price rise steadily over the course of the day to my stop just after the USD news.

Given that I could argue that I should have got out around 1.3720 in the morning when the price faltered (didn't break previous low at 37) and showed signs of a trend continuation. Hidden divergence with price and the stochastic.

It is easy to talk yourself out of a losing trade in hindsight - the fact is that the game plan was to stick with it to the 1.3760 level (62% Fibonacci). The market still looks very long and if it rolls over there is a lot of money to make - there will be a heap of stops to take out on the way down.

So what to do? I am short the AUD/USD at present which is looking very bullish at present - once again if this rolls over it could make the week. And if it fails? Next!

I still like the EUR short at the 62% retracement at 1.3825-30 .

A heap of big news on the AUD today - I don't think I will be left wondering on my short position!