Thursday, November 5, 2009

Wednesday Notes - ES FOMC Day Tendency

Well what can I say the S&P emini tendency to perform a reasonable up move leading into the FOMC announcement played out again last night. Once again as I am in the Southern Hemisphere I write my journal notes the 'morning after the night before' as it were.



That said I didn't play the sequences with much conviction. I finished 1.25 points up - about $40 after commissions - lunch money for the week! The third sequence really got me annoyed with my actions - break out of a consolidation range and pullback to previous significant high at 1052, support at moving average, candlestick pattern, hidden divergence on the stochastic - high probability in my book. However, I played it really poorly.

Now this is not an exact science so my first contract was filled at 1053.25. Not a great fill but hey the basis of my entry was still intact. I panicked and took a 1 tick loss as I watched the picket fence construct for a few bars - why didn't I have conviction in the set-up despite evidence to the contrary?

  • Was late on the entry and then believed I got a poor price - I actually hesitated on the trigger.
  • Was fearful of finishing the session in the red and was protecting my modest profit.
  • Weary - still trying to adjust to the later time slot with US daylight saving ending.

What should I have done:-

  • Accepted this game is not exact.
  • Scaled in two more contracts as the trade basis held - at a better price.
  • Scaled out contracts as trade went in the anticipated direction.

Yet another school day for me.