A New Year - A New Focus, Trades of the Week

It was a frustrating week mainly because there were a few high probability set-ups. However, for several reasons i messed them up.

The USDCAD formed a wedge of price consolidation. I prefer to take these set-ups as they return to the previous support level. In this case prior to a news announcement the price retraced to 9970. I got an entry at 9980 with around a 30 pip stop.

I got too greedy here where I set take profit 1.0190 at previous Daily swing high. A 2:1 risk reward was more appropriate for this news induced moved. I was stopped out the next day

The next trade was on the 'Cable' which was and ABC corrective move - the idea was to go short as the price drifted up to previous highs from the impulsive move. No mistakes here it just blasted through - they don't always work that is why the risk reward considerations are paramount.

The two screen shots above on the AUD and the USD-Yen illustrate my positioning ahead of the non-farm payrolls. The USD Yen was a ABC correction into support at 81.50. I got set early in the week and the price popped up a bit and drifted until the announcement. I always had the intention to hold this position through the news - hopefully with sufficient breathing space on my stop for the volatility.

Prior to the announcement the AUD/USD was showing price and indicator divergence and price on the 1 hour chart was indicating the end of a impulsive wave 5. I set myself short at 1.0180 a couple of hours prior to the news. My intention here was to take a quick 1:1 profit and get out before the news.

Here is how it frustratingly panned out:-

• The AUD popped south and I was about 15 pips in the money
• As per my plan I closed the AUD prior to news with a modest 15 pip profit
• The USD spiked South at the payroll announcement adn took my stop out within 4 pips of the low - aaaaaargh
• It immediately retraced the move but it was all to late to chase.
• As this was happening the AUD (which I expected to inversely follow the USD) - spiked higher but my stop would have been safe at 1.021 below the trend line resistance
• As expected the AUD (inversely) followed the post news move South
  

I was still spitting chips on Saturday evening as I counted my losses for the week. The ironic thing as I watched my (virtual) mentor Don Millers next episode of Trading after Dark (TAD) http://donmillereducation.com/journal/ on Saturday afternoon was his reminder to me about placing stops just under previous highs/lows. I was hit wit the sucker punch this week.

It is little consolation that I was very close to a decent profit for the week - all that matters is grinding out the P from the L but still looking forward to next week.

The aim is to get wholesale set-ups - which seems to be buying currency on dips at the moment.